Math
Probability of either event
Calculate union probability for two events with a stated overlap.
Calculators / Business / Weighted sales pipeline
Weighted sales pipeline calculator
Weight three opportunity values by their supplied closing probabilities.
On this page
Probability-weighted value17,000
Unweighted pipeline value35,000
Value-weighted probability48.57%
Calculator controls
How to calculate
Weight three opportunity values by their supplied closing probabilities.
Probability-weighted value =
a*pa/100+b*pb/100+c*pc/100Unweighted pipeline value =
a+b+cValue-weighted probability =
(a*pa/100+b*pb/100+c*pc/100)/(a+b+c)*100 %Worked example
- Opportunity A value: 10000
- Opportunity A probability (%): 80
- Opportunity B value: 20000
- Opportunity B probability (%): 40
- Opportunity C value: 5000
- Opportunity C probability (%): 20
- Probability-weighted value: 17,000
- Unweighted pipeline value: 35,000
- Value-weighted probability: 48.57 %
Assumptions and limits
Probabilities are your assumptions. Expected value is not committed revenue or a cash-flow forecast; dependencies, timing and deal-size changes are excluded.
Results are rounded for display; calculations use unrounded values. Read our calculation methodology.
Understanding the result
Weight three opportunity values by their supplied closing probabilities. Each opportunity contributes value multiplied by probability. A zero-probability opportunity contributes no expected value.
When this tool is useful
Each opportunity contributes value multiplied by probability. A zero-probability opportunity contributes no expected value.
Understanding your inputs
| Input | Example |
|---|---|
Opportunity A value a | 10000 |
Opportunity A probability (%) pa | 80 |
Opportunity B value b | 20000 |
Opportunity B probability (%) pb | 40 |
Opportunity C value c | 5000 |
Opportunity C probability (%) pc | 20 |
Frequently asked questions
What assumptions should I check?
Probabilities are your assumptions. Expected value is not committed revenue or a cash-flow forecast; dependencies, timing and deal-size changes are excluded.
How can I check the result?
Start with the labelled example. Keep units consistent, calculate without intermediate rounding and change one input at a time. The diagram explains the model; the result table supplies the numerical answer.